In 1978, China made the decision to open up and turn outward. This has been fundamental to China’s extraordinary economic transformation over the last four decades and more. The turn outward, we should remind ourselves, represented a rejection of the “socialism in one country” thinking that had shaped Chinese policy after the 1949 revolution. The new approach was hugely consequential. China came to see itself as an integral part of the global economy, rather than, as before, a part of the socialist bloc, or, more narrowly even, pretty much on its own. China’s new approach was to measure itself against the world, and, more crucially, the advanced economies of the US, Europe, and Japan.
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It has long been accepted, at least in theory, that climate change poses the greatest threat to humanity. With each passing year, new record heatwaves, devastating floods, deadly fires and rising sea levels have reinforced near-unanimous warnings from climate scientists that our present way of living is fast becoming unsustainable. However, it is one thing to agree in words, but quite another to deliver the policies that will translate those words into effective action. This is now being dramatically tested by the response of the US and the EU to the arrival of Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) in their markets.
Over the last two years, there have mounting accusations in the West that China is guilty of dumping its goods at uncompetitive prices on Western markets. This criticism has largely been directed at the new green technology industries, in particular solar power, wind turbines, and, most notably, electric vehicles. It is true that China, especially in a much earlier period, gave large-scale financial assistance to EV manufacturers and, until the end of 2022, subsidised the purchases of EVs, as quite a few other countries did. But the idea that these subsidies are the reason for the remarkable competitiveness of Chinese EVs is a fantasy.
The shift in the attitude of the Philippine government toward the US and China should not come as a great surprise. The Philippines has long been closer to the US than any other ASEAN country. In 1951 it signed a defense treaty with the US, has been host to five US military bases, and the two militaries enjoy a very close relationship. The Philippine government’s submission to the Hague tribunal on the South China Sea was a result of close collaboration with the US, which was, in effect, its joint author. However, the unexpected election of Rodrigo Duterte as Philippine president in 2016 changed the dynamic. Duterte refused to support the Hague judgment and instead expressed a desire to distance the Philippines from the US and strengthen ties with China, ultimately undermining the Hague judgment.
Complaints have been mounting in the West, especially Western Europe, about the threat of cheap Chinese manufacturing products flooding Western markets. The main concern is electric vehicles, solar panels, and wind turbines, the key green technologies in the fight against climate change. A common accusation is that China has provided these industries with unfair state subsides which bestow on them an unfair market advantage.
There has been constant low-level sniping in the West against China’s record on climate change, in particular its expansion of coal mining, and its target of 2060 rather than 2050 for carbon zero. I have viewed this with mild if irritated amusement, because when it comes to results, then China, we can be sure, will deliver and most Western countries will fall short, probably well short. It is now becoming clear, however, that we will not have to wait much longer to judge their relative performances. The answer is already near at hand.
The 24th China-EU Summit will be held in Beijing on Thursday. The relationship between China and Europe has shown considerable resilience in the face of the tumultuous events of the last few years. Two of the most divisive factors – COVID-19 and the Ukraine war – have retreated in the European public mind over the last year. The biggest single geopolitical factor turning Europeans against China has been the Ukraine war and a widespread European belief that China, at least implicitly, supported Russia. Skilful Chinese diplomacy has largely defused this, and many Europeans now hope China might become a major broker in any peace settlement. One of the key factors that have served to mellow European attitudes has been a growing view that China is a constructive force for peace on the global stage.
We witnessed two events in October which tell opposite stories about the prospects for mutual learning between different civilizations, religions, and ethnicities. The contrasts could not be greater. The first was Hamas’s attack on Israel and, in response, Israel’s blanket bombing and then invasion of Gaza. No region of the world speaks more eloquently of the failure to engage in mutual respect and dialogue between different races, religions, and cultures than this part of the Middle East. Today the Palestinians either live as a discriminated minority in what is essentially an apartheid state, or they live in Gaza and West Bank, which are in effect Israeli dependencies. They are denied a home in their homeland.
The Palestinian question has spent long periods hidden from view, the plight of the Palestinians forgotten and ignored, only intermittently forcing its way back on the agenda. Once more, the huge historic grievance felt by Palestinians has erupted, dominating the Middle East, and demanding the attention of the world. To reduce the causes of the present conflict to the action of Hamas on October 7 is entirely to miss the point. The Palestinian question will not go away until the fundamental issue of a Palestinian state is addressed.
BRICS Summit proved a triumph. Over the course of the last year, over 40 countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS. At the Summit, the previous five members became eleven, and no doubt more will follow. BRICS now represents 37% of global GDP. The developing world has acquired a powerful new voice on the global stage. And as further new members are added, its influence will surely grow.