5.00 – 6.30pm: Room 138, Alison Richard Building, 7 West Road
Martin Jacques, who holds academic posts at the London School of Economics and Tsinghua Universtiy in Beijing, as well as being a former journalist and founder of the left leaning Demos think-tank has produced a fascinating book about how the world’s political and economic power has been shifting in the early twenty-first century and what is likely to happen next.
Jacques finishes his book with an unexpected flourish (which I am just about to ruin for you) in which he makes a good case for China’s predicted world dominance to become a reality sooner rather than later. Through much of the book he refers to a Goldman Sachs prediction that China’s economy will overtake the United States (US) in 2025. The reader is left to assume that this is the date on which the new world order will be finalised. However, in this final section he points to the rapid implosion of all things American, suggesting that the impact of the 2007/2008 financial crisis on the US (and the Europe Union), together with US foreign policy which has had a myopic focus on the middle-east for the last decade, has left the field wide open for China. He names 2008 as the year that marked the end, or at least the beginning of the end, of a period of US world dominance that has lasted since 1945 and has been unchallenged since the collapse of the Soviet Block in 1989-1991.
President B. S. Aquino III apparently thought he and US President Barack Obama would be playing China together. Obama said however that they’re not playing China right now, but that the US would defend the Philippines if attacked. This had some political pundits confused. What exactly did Obama mean?
“The US has no plan to contain China.” China is now the world’s largest trading nation, according to the latest statistics, and is outspending almost every other country on defense outside of the US. Many China-watchers seem to believe China will soon rule the world—one global bestseller by Martin Jacques is entitled, “When China Rules the World. ” But Obama did not come to Asia to embrace that position.
He obviously has a soft spot for B. S. III. But he has seen how unmusical the guy is on any serious question. Even when the guy appears headed in the right direction, he self-destructs as soon as he “vocalizes” his position. Obama could not afford to let this loose cannon, this Philippine version of Kim Jong-un, mess up things for Washington. He had to restrain his poodle. It is within this context that one must read Obama’s statement.
18.30–20.30: Room No. 549 (Centre Discussion Room), 5th floor, Akamon General Research Building, The University of Tokyo (Hongo campus)
13.00—14.00: School of International Liberal Studies
China has one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Its rapid industrial progress, growing military strength, large population and steadily increasing international influence, are all clear signs that China will have a secure place among the super powers in the near future.
The question, raised in a book by journalist Martin Jacques, is not if China will rule the world, but simply when?
In the interview below, Jacques argues that in the twenty-first century, China will challenge our perception of what it is to be modern, and the West will be forced to learn from growing eastern powers.