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BEIJING // Did the coming out party for China’s first aircraft carrier symbolise the rise of the world’s next superpower?
It depends. Like the country, the answer is complicated.
After two decades of nearly constant double-digit increases in military budgets that have seen the country invest in a dizzying array of hardware, from new submarines to latest-generation cruise and ballistic missiles,China now spends more on defence than any nation except the United States.
When the economist Jane Golley joined the federal Treasury in 1994, she was assigned to a single-person desk overseeing China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Korea.
It was only a few years after the collapse of the Soviet empire. The US was at the apex of its power and influence. Francis Fukuyama, a noted American scholar, confidently predicted the ”end of history” – a scenario where the entire world would embrace America’s brand of liberal democracy and capitalism.
WHEN economist Jane Golley joined the federal Treasury in 1994, she was assigned to a single-person desk overseeing China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Korea.
It was only a few years after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the United States was at the apex of its power and influence. Francis Fukuyama, a noted American scholar, confidently predicted the ”end of history” – a scenario where the entire world would embrace America’s brand of liberal democracy and capitalism.
Fast-forward 18 years and the global financial crisis has humbled the once-mighty US. China is within striking distance of overtaking the US as the largest economy in the world and Americans are awake to the reality that China – as Hillary Clinton famously put to Kevin Rudd – is their largest banker, by virtue of the central government’s multi-trillion dollar holdings in US treasuries.
The rise of China is reshaping the world in profound ways that are bringing about new political, cultural, intellectual, moral and military consequences, and yet we mistakenly continue to view China from a Western perspective, according to author and China academic Martin Jacques. He recently gave a lecture on the topic for Sydney University’s China Studies Centre and Sydney Ideas.
A warning’s being issued by the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence today. It says there’s a danger of economic espionage and cyber-sabotage from two top Chinese telecommunications companies that are trying to move into the U.S. market.
The bi-partisan report — some of which is classified — says Huawei Technologies and ZTE Corporation are too close to the Chinese government and could be used to spy on U.S. citizens, businesses and government.
Author of When China Rules the World says he’s been vindicated
Martin Jacques says China doom-mongers were typically dismissive when he argued the former Middle Kingdom would have a central role in shaping the 21st century.
In his book, When China Rules the World, which some regard as a potential classic, he forecast China would become the world’s largest economy by 2027, albeit using Goldman Sachs data, and that we were all going to be living in a more Sinocentric world.
His critics said the more likely scenario was that China was going to succumb to a crisis that completely knocks it off track.
PETALING JAYA: China may overtake the United States as the biggest economic power in the next four to six years but this does not mean that it will instantly become the world’s superpower, says a leading expert on China.
Dr Martin Jacques, 67, author of the global bestseller When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order, said it would take several decades, from between 2030 and 2040, before it could even achieve developed state status.
“It’d be a long way to go as a superpower,” he said at a talk on “China As Global Superpower: What It Means For Asia and The World”, hosted by the Asian Centre for Media Studies, based in Menara Star.
Justice Mah Weng Kwai who moderated this session began by introducing the speaker Martin Jacques. Justice Mah also highlighted the power and energy presence of the People’s Republic of China and stressed that China had attained the highest gross domestic product at purchasing power parity per capita. He proceeded to raise several fundamental issues to be considered by the speaker, namely the effect of China’s sharp economic rise on the world and the possibility of China ruling the world in the future.
The speaker, Martin Jacques began by recalling his fond memory of Malaysia and that of his late wife Harinder Veriah who died tragically. Martin Jacques is the author of the best-selling book “When China Rules the World” which has sold over 250,000 copies.
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