The year before the global financial crisis, Goldman Sachs predicted China would surpass the U.S. as the world’s largest economy in 2027. Journalist and scholar Martin Jacques wants to know just what this world will look like when China is at its economic and political helm.
In When China Rules the World: The Rise of the Middle Kingdom and the End of the Western World, Jacques makes his case for China’s impending rise to the top. The data behind Jacques’ predictions that China will soon be the world’s largest economy is solid—though some may call his forecast conservative when considered alongside recent estimates byPriceWaterhouseCoopers that push the timeline forward to 2020 for China’s ascendancy.
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It is foolish to make concrete predictions about China, due to how often – and how quickly – the country has been proving people wrong
Very occasionally, though, I feel something is such a sure bet that I’m ready to go out on a limb and describe something I’m sure will occur. Here’s my latest example: in the upcoming year or two, we’ll see a lot of new general interest books on the People’s Republic of China (PRC) show up at online sites like Amazon.com and in brick and mortar bookstores. I’ll go further than this and predict that the books will be by varied kinds of authors, from freelance writers to pundits, daily journalists to scholars, like me, who often write for specialized audiences but have decided to try to reach that elusive general educated reader. And one further point, of particular relevance to readers of this site: these books, while focusing on the present, will often make at least some nods to the past, in order to place recent events into historical perspective.
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Is China ready to rule the world? Not quite yet, argues Simon S.C. Tay. Both Asia and America need to be realistic about their limitations (and both sides now have more than a few of those) and concede that the future is not a zero-sum game. If both sides are interested in prosperity, the relationship will have to be more about cooperation than competition. And if our time is in indeed witnessing the long handoff of global power from one empire to another, the smoother the transition, the better.
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Back in the early 1980s, when the Japanese economy was on a roll, the number of books, journal and media articles extolling its strength and impact became almost a weekly staple of publication that the late Dr. Hadi Soesastro remarked at a CSIS Jakarta seminar “I’m going to commit suicide if another speaker is going talk again about the virtues of Japanese economic model.”
It is with the same sense of measured reluctance that I read through China’s Rise by Gary Schmitt, China Megatrends by John Naisbitt and When China Rules the World by Martin Jacques. All this after scanning through The Beijing Consensus by Stephen Halper and, tellingly, during China’s current troubles facing devastating floods, landslides, acute rural and urban problems and lowered pace of economic growth.
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It’s always fun to find out what others are reading and peruse their book shelves. Here’s a glimpse at the summer reading lists of a variety of people from business, nonprofits, and corporate social responsibility
Matthew Bishop, Author, Philanthrocapitalism; U.S. Business Editor and New York Bureau Chief of The Economist : “I’m reading The Facebook Effect, by David Kirkpatrick; Aunt Julia and the Scriptwriter, by Mario Vargas Llosa; and Showing Up For Life by Bill Gates Senior. I am enjoying all of them immensely, but the Gates book most of all – not just because it helps to understand better Gates Junior, but because it serves up lots of practical wisdom about how to live an effective life, from someone who was clearly a big person in his various communities long before his son made his billions.”
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For anyone who thinks China is a superpower in only the political arena, they are missing the larger geopolitical picture. The Internet is the 21st Century’s newest battlefield where countries will fight for dominance over other nations. As content and data-mining transitions from Web 2.0 to Web 3.0, or from Social Media to the Semantic Web, most thought leaders are betting on China as the front-runner in leading this charge.
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Last year a British scholar, Martin Jacques, published his latest book titled “When China Rules the World.” In the prevailing global publishing and media environment, the title of Jacques latest book clearly owes much to an editorial emphasis on ensuring headlines and titles are punchy and can immediately attract the public’s attention. However, it was the subtitle of the book which really enticed me to buy and read this book: “The Rise of the Middle Kingdom and the End of the Western World.”
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US economic and political hegemony and the dominance of the US dollar have come to a screeching end
Corporate media, which never warned that capitalism was in crisis before the financial meltdown, now insists that the system is simply in a down period, and will at some point return to stability. But the crisis became inevitable precisely because “the most predatory, parasitic and criminal elements of Wall Street and bank capital became dominant over the economy and the government.” With these same elements still firmly in charge, how can the future be anything but chaotic?
In 2006-2009 the US financial system and economy came close to systemic collapse. Had it occurred most of the world would have gone down with it. Karl Marx famously described events like these as “momenti mori”, reminders of systemic death. This was the first truly existential crisis of the capitalist economic system since the Great Depression, and it reminds us of its near death fragility.
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Not for the first nor the last time, I regret the long-ago death of Rewi Alley, the New Zealander who is one of China’s acclaimed heroes.
He devoted 60 years to setting up schools and thousands of industrial co-operatives there. He wrote of them “fitting into the vast landscape of rural China”. His slogan was: “Yo Banfa!” – “There is a way.” He retained independent views in a country where such attitudes were suspect – and still are. His mana was unquestioned.
In particular, I remember a long conversation with him in Beijing in 1983, when he talked gloomily of his deep misgivings about China’s dogmatic one-child family policy. He feared for the effects on the domestic and family life of the nation he loved, a doubt amounting to communist heresy.
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Until fairly recently, the Chinese were earning praise for their shrewd handling of Southeast Asia. Not anymore.
It’s a showdown at the South China Sea Corral — or so you might think if you’ve been listening to China’s state-run news media. On July 23, speaking at an ASEAN regional forum in Hanoi, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared that her government “supports a collaborative diplomatic process for resolving the various disputes” over the South China Sea. She also made a point of noting that the U.S. would be happy to offer its services as a mediator and that Washington opposes “the use or threat of force by any claimant.”
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