When China Rules The World

Will China Dominate The 21st Century?

by Jonathan Fenby
(Polity Press, £9.99)

BEN CHACKO reviews Jonathan Fenby’s latest analysis of China’s chances

JONATHAN FENBY is one of Britain’s more knowledgeable China-watchers and his latest work on the subject deserves attention.

The book, however, ought really to take the title of its final chapter — Why China Will Not Dominate the 21st Century.

It reads rather like a refutation of Martin Jacques’s When China Rules the World, mirroring the latter even to the extent that both contain a section quoting attitude surveys “proving” that positive or negative views of China are the norm worldwide.

In this it is quite effective. Fenby relentlessly highlights China’s weaknesses, and in many respects he is right — right that China is nowhere near displacing the US as a global superpower, right that there is scant evidence that it wants to, right that it faces serious economic, political and environmental challenges which will keep its politicians’ focus firmly on their own country and not on attempts to become a world leader.

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There are only two real adversaries in the conflict in the South China Sea — the US and China. All the rest are supporting cast (including the Philippines) with subplots of their own. At the center of the conflict is the superpower race that even the protagonists themselves hesitate to admit. All manner of prevarications are used to obscure that single issue.

Martin Jacques, the author of When China Rules the World, who was here in Manila, summed it up thus. “There has been an extraordinary and irreversible shift of power from the West in general and the United States, in particular, to China.

But neither the American nor the Chinese government has admitted to this shift of power. On the surface at least it has been business as usual.

This is an illusion but a forgivable one nonetheless. There is a strong imperative for the two countries to continue with their preset modus vivendi; a shift in the tectonic plates is bound to complicate this. Signs of growing difficulty were already evident from around autumn 2009.”

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Sir David Bell, vice-chancellor, University of Reading, says: “Having recently visited the country, I read Martin Jacques’ When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order [Penguin, 2009]. He defies the conventional wisdom that China is on an inexorable path to ‘Westernisation’. Rather, the Middle Kingdom, with its enduring language, culture and values, will plot an alternative route to modernisation. As Jacques puts it, the ‘gravitational pull’ of China will have a profound impact on the West, and not the other way round.”

As part of the Town Hall of Cleveland speaker series, which is partially sponsored by Case Western Reserve University, acclaimed economist and author Martin Jacques spoke on Nov. 4 at the Playhouse Square’s Ohio Theatre. Local Clevelanders came as well as many students from the university to listen to Jacques’ speech titled, “When China Rules the World”.

Jacques is perhaps most known for his 2009 global bestselling novel, “When China Rules the World: The End of Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order,” which was well-received by political pundits and economists for its analysis of Chinese economy as well as the study of Chinese culture and how it relates to the workings of Chinese economy.

The lecture given at Ohio Theatre didn’t deviate much from Jacques’ novel, save for updated statistics, such as a new numbers that predicted that the Chinese economy would overpower the American economy by 2018 instead of 2027, which was previously predicted by Goldman Sachs in 2007. This new statistic created an audible gasp in the theater since the current prediction is more pressing, being only a few years away.

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A panel of international experts applauded in Milan at a gathering Thursday China’s reform blueprint unveiled after the just ended 3rd Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC).

“China is moving ahead to make the country more efficient,” a concept that is “rooted in China’s civilization,” Alberto Bradanini, Italian ambassador to Beijing, said at the meeting.

“China moves very gradually, which is justified by the complexity of the country and the problems it has to deal with,” he said.

“The government will withdraw from its intervention in the market,” explained Ding Yifan, deputy director of the Institute of World Development under the State Council’s Development Research Center and vice chairman of the China Society of World Economics.

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‘New Zealand’s future is Asian, above all Chinese‘ wrote Martin Jacques during his recent visit to New Zealand. Buttressing his case were what he saw as unique New Zealand attributes: its significant Maori and Polynesian cultures, the increasing numbers of Chinese Kiwis, New Zealand’s pure food and authentic tourism (it’s not for nothing that New Zealand’s tourism slogan is ‘100% Pure’), and its close political, economic and cultural connection with China.

Much of what Jacques said in New Zealand was not necessarily news. New Zealand’s population, as much as its economy, is reorienting to Asia. New Zealand, arguably, is much more aware of China’s rise and what it means for the world than is much of Europe, or even America. New Zealand’s officials and academics alike are spending hours analysing what China’s rise means for New Zealand.

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Making Mandarin a compulsory subject in primary schools will spur New Zealand’s economic growth, and will open up opportunities for deeper understanding of the Chinese culture.

“There couldn’t be a more important subject for New Zealand to be discussing,” said Dr Martin Jacques.

“There will be a new elite in New Zealand – they will be linked with China – and this new elite will be bilingual. You cannot get by just speaking English – you need to speak Mandarin – unless you want to operate with one hand tied behind your back.”

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