中國改革開放三十年,經濟上取得驕人成績。心存「恐慌」的西方國家每隔一段日子,就會拋出一套「中國威脅論」;權威的「神算子」更預測,中國經濟實力到2030年時會超越美國,成為世界中心。
有關「中國威脅論」的書籍,近年熱爆歐美書市。英國上月出版一書涉及類似的威脅論,書未寫完,已轟動全球。書中提到的中國威脅,非指經濟或軍事,而是文化威脅。
作者認為,中國將以文化統治世界。到時,周邊國家向中國朝貢;有更多人看中國電影和學習漢語。 文:余綺平 圖:網上圖片
中國改革開放三十年,經濟上取得驕人成績。心存「恐慌」的西方國家每隔一段日子,就會拋出一套「中國威脅論」;權威的「神算子」更預測,中國經濟實力到2030年時會超越美國,成為世界中心。
有關「中國威脅論」的書籍,近年熱爆歐美書市。英國上月出版一書涉及類似的威脅論,書未寫完,已轟動全球。書中提到的中國威脅,非指經濟或軍事,而是文化威脅。
作者認為,中國將以文化統治世界。到時,周邊國家向中國朝貢;有更多人看中國電影和學習漢語。 文:余綺平 圖:網上圖片
This long and repetitive book is exactly about what it says on the cover. Unlike Martin Jacques I hesitate to say the same thing again and again, but his point is that the Chinese have a very long, tenacious, unified, and enduring culture that is overtaking the ‘West’ – he means the United States, a country of recent origin compared to the 5,000-year-old Chinese civilisation-state. Some time in the mid-term future the Chinese will be global masters.
MARTIN JACQUES’S MAMMOTH study of the rise of China begins well enough, emphasising the country’s otherness while insisting that otherness does not have to mean alien. He is frank, too, about China’s unembarrassed racial and hierarchic view of the world. He is also right to dismiss demands for instant democracy as impracticable, though perhaps an innate anti-Americanism prevents him adding that they usually come from the people who smirk at US naivety in seeking to impose it on Iraq.
Very soon, however, his zealotry in cutting the West down to size becomes tiresome. The rise of China is to be welcomed, and there might be something in his thesis that for the first time since the rise of the nation-state (China, he argues is a civilisation-state) modernity will not be an exclusively western concept.
After playing a constructive role at the London G20 summit in April, China gave $50bn to the IMF and dispatched ships to catch pirates off the Somali coast. Optimists will say that such good behaviour is a further sign of the long-term integration of China into the global economy and political system. They can point to 30 years of economic reform, the steady growth of personal freedom within China and even modest moves towards democracy, such as village elections in many provinces.
But recent events must give optimists pause for thought. On a visit to China in late June I was reminded that within the Chinese system there is a constant battle between liberals and authoritarians, and the hardliners have started to win more of the arguments. The violence in Xinjiang will only strengthen their hand. Most Chinese think that the government has been too soft on the Uighur rioters—and although China is not a democracy, public opinion (as revealed by comments on websites, at least) does influence policy. Even before the Uighur riots, last year’s protests in Tibet and the recent 20th anniversary of Tiananmen Square had made China’s leaders wary of relaxing their authority. So had fears that the current economic crisis would lead to social instability.
It’s never easy to predict the future. There are so many variables that are beyond a man’s foresight. A “black swan” that is out of the norm can pop up anywhere, anytime. And yet, only a few people object to the forecast that the 21st century will be the era of China. Those who were buoyed by the neo-imperialistic fantasy of “Pax Americana” said the 21st century would be the era of the United States, but their voices were buried under the sandstorms of Iraq and the collapse of Wall Street. “Pax Sinica” is not a matter of supposition: It has become recognized as a matter of time.
Goldman Sachs’ 2007 forecast is often quoted in talks about the China’s economic future. According to the report, China will catch up with the United States’ gross domestic product by 2027 and become the world’s largest economy. By 2050, China’s GDP is expected to be two times larger than that of the United States.
中国的崛起将改变的不仅仅是世界经济格局,还将彻底动摇我们的思维和生活方式
以前,谈论中国统治世界话题的书通常以“如果”开始。如今,开场白更多转向假设性的“当……时”。这就是我们所生活的时代。马丁·雅克关于中国崛起的著作长达550页,但对其飞速经济发展是否不可阻挡的问题却惜墨如金。该书几乎完全不理会有关对中央王国的另一种流行——且看似很合理的——假设:“当中国奇迹破灭时。”
雅克的书基于如下推断:到2050年,中国将成为世界最大经济体,超过美国和那时的第三大经济体印度。借助GDP“无情的手段”,中国将在政治和军事上成为全球最强大的国家。雅克认为,中国的崛起将推翻对何为现代的“西方式”看法。他说,有关全球化的想当然结论认为,其他国家现代化会打上西方烙印,“我们习惯于西方化甚至美国化的世界,不能想象若非如此世界将会怎样”。
Q: We in the West spend a great deal of time discussing China’s rise. But we seem to resist the next logical step, which is to consider how things will change around the world when China becomes the world’s pre-eminent economic power. Why is that?
A: I think that the world has been so used to American hegemony, and you had a recent period of American history under Bush which actually postulated exactly the opposite scenario—that we were in fact on the eve of a new American century. So we’re just not versed in the profoundly different thinking China’s pre-eminence will require. More than that, we have failed to understand that we’re not just talking about economic change. The impact of China’s rise is going to be at least as great politically and culturally as it will be in economic terms.
He or she almost certainly didn’t write it — and perhaps didn’t even think about it, either.
Nevertheless, it is hard to resist when a piece entitled “I was a fool to talk about admiring Hitler” appears under the name of Bernie Ecclestone, the British billionaire boss of Formula One racing. This was a commentary in The Times on Tuesday, attempting to quieten the furore that followed his remarks to the newspaper three days previously, to the effect that the Führer was his favourite dictator because: “Apart from the fact that Hitler got taken away and persuaded to do things that I have no idea whether he wanted to do or not, he was in the way that he could command a lot of people, able to get things done.”
Watching Tim Geithner, the US treasury secretary, in Beijing last month, it was easy to be struck by how times have changed. Most visiting American dignitaries not long ago seized the opportunity to harangue the Chinese over human rights, or over their undervalued currency that was unfairly helping export sales at the expense of competitors. Geithner instead beseeched the Chinese to keep buying US government bonds, as they have done by the hundreds of billions, or else sink the US by impairing its ability to raise money. He went out of his way to reassure the Chinese that the steps taken by the Obama administration were going to work to restore growth.
The collapsed global economy stands as a damning criticism of unfettered capitalism and the light regulation that would seem to separate the West from countries such as China. As if that were not a big enough blow, the West has also taken to asking China for far greater assistance with a host of other problems, from North Korea to the environment. China isn’t on the ascent any more; it has risen.
Amid the avalanche of summer reading crashing on to my desk falls another hefty tome about China’s re-emergence as a global power.
The theme is familiar: the present century will belong to Asia in general and to China in particular. The book’s title, When China Rules the World, permits none of the doubts and vacillation about the future course of events that often afflict this columnist.
By unhappy accident, publication has coincided with the most serious unrest since the Cultural Revolution, in China’s Xinjiang province. More than 150 have been killed in ethnic clashes. Hu Jintao, the Chinese president, this week felt obliged to cancel his appearance at the Group of Eight summit in Italy to fly back to Beijing.
Skipping a gathering of some of the world’s most powerful politicians was no small thing for the leader of a regime that that places a high premium on the image it shows the rest of the world. Yet it was also a reminder that China’s politicians are rarely quite as confident as western observers about their country’s destiny. In my experience, the west’s awe is as often as not matched by China’s anxiety.