Πώς θα είναι ο κόσμος στα μέσα του 21ου αιώνα, αν επιβεβαιωθούν οι προβλέψεις που θέλουν την Κίνα να αναδεικνύεται στη μεγαλύτερη οικονομία παγκοσμίως, έως το 2050; Ο Μάρτιν Ζακ, ακαδημαϊκός και συγγραφέας μιας νέας μελέτης που διερευνά αυτή την προοπτική, λέει ότι είναι καιρός να αρχίσουμε στη Δύση να εξοικειωνόμαστε με την ιδέα ότι ο κόσμος θα μοιάζει όλο και λιγότερο οικείος
Ενα θεμελιώδες σφάλμα εντοπίζει ο Ζακ σε όλες σχεδόν τις αναλύσεις και τις προβλέψεις σχετικά με την αναπόφευκτη ανάδειξη της Κίνας στη μεγαλύτερη παγκόσμια δύναμη: Θεωρούν αυτονόητο ότι η είσοδός στην εποχή της μοντερνικότητας δεν μπορεί παρά να σημαίνει ότι θα «δυτικοποιηθεί». Αυτό αποκλείεται, σύμφωνα με τον Βρετανό ακαδημαϊκό και δημοσιογράφο. Στα 65 του χρόνια σήμερα, ο Ζακ είναι επισκέπτης καθηγητής στο Τμήμα Ασιατικών Μελετών του London School of Economics και αρθρογραφεί τακτικά στον βρετανικό Τύπο. Παραμένει, ωστόσο, περισσότερο γνωστός ως ο πρώην διευθυντής της επιθεώρησης «Marxism Today» -από το 1977 έως το 1991, οπότε και έκλεισε. Στο βιβλίο του με τίτλο «When China Rules the World: The Rise of the Middle Kingdom and the End of the Western World», που κυκλοφόρησε στη Βρετανία στις αρχές του καλοκαιριού και έχει προκαλέσει έντονες -συχνά και αρκετά θερμές- συζητήσεις, ο Ζακ υποστηρίζει ότι η ηγεμονία της Κίνας θα μας φέρει αντιμέτωπους με μια ολότελα νέα πραγματικότητα, η οποία θα διαμορφώνεται από τις πολιτικές και πολιτισμικές παραδόσεις ενός πολιτισμού που μας είναι άγνωστος -ακόμη και αν νομίζουμε το αντίθετο. «Στη Δύση είμαστε εντελώς αδαείς όσον αφορά τους άλλους πολιτισμούς. Νομίζουμε ότι είμαστε κοσμοπολίτες, ενώ στην πραγματικότητα είμαστε εντελώς επαρχιώτες. Φταίει το γεγονός ότι ήμασταν πάντα σε θέση να συνδιαλεγόμαστε με τον υπόλοιπο κόσμο με τους δικούς μας όρους. Αυτό φαίνεται ότι αλλάζει, οπότε θα χρειαστεί να αρχίσουμε να μαθαίνουμε…», λέει.
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British scholar and Guardian columnist Jacques (co-editor: New Times, 1989, etc.) delivers a clear-eyed look at how China’s recent modernization will leapfrog Western “superiority.”
For millennia China existed in a state of “splendid isolation,” while the West, namely Britain, adapting many Chinese inventions, embarked on the Industrial Revolution funded by coal reserves and colonial contributions. Although China had the wherewithal for modernization, the author asserts, it lacked adequate sustainable resources, which Europe derived from the slave trade and colonization. However, China’s20recent transformation, in a relatively short time, “has been more home-grown than Western import.” Jacques walks the reader through the early establishment of an authoritative, rigidly hierarchical system in China, from emperor to warlord to Mao, encompassing an emphasis on education, family structure, a central bureaucracy and maintaining harmony. He writes that China is not just a nation-state, but a “civilization-state,” and is only halfway through its economic takeoff, and not yet prepared to implement a multiparty democratic system. Many will argue that China recognizes it doesn’t really need democracy, which would serve as a “distraction from the main task of sustaining the country’s economic growth.” Jacques discusses at length issues of racism, culture and language, and he examines China’s likely future impact on other emerging economic powers like Africa, Iran and the Middle East, Russia, India and South Asia. So what will Chinese global hegemony look like? Not at all like the West.
Cultural differences do matter, and Jacques ably demonstrates that China’s process of modernization derives from its own “native sources of dynamism.”
When China Rules The World: The Rise Of The Middle Kingdom And The End Of The Western World
The less-than-subtle title of this thought provoking book almost guarantees it will be read. Some will be drawn to it because the idea of China ruling the world — or, perhaps, the United States losing global supremacy — is what they want to hear. Others will be attracted because the book spells out what they fear (we all secretly enjoy the thrill of a good horror story at times). Martin Jacques has both bases covered. Quite clever, really.
The central premise to Jacques’ 550-page warning-red tome is that China’s rise is assured and the Western world, which has been top dog for more than two centuries, should be worried sick. The British journalist and author argues that the West’s conviction that all developing nations aspire to one universal idea of modernity, and that Western civilization (popular representation, rule of law, free markets, etc.) reveals human achievement at its most admirable, is flawed or, at least, outdated.
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英国专家雅克批判西方人的同时却掉入了同样的怪圈，他认为，中国的崛起会像西方曾经的崛起那样在全世界建立一个以自己为主导的中国模式
《国际先驱导报》记者杨英发自北京 让我们闭上眼睛来想像这样的画面：哈佛商学院的学生指着地图上的中国上海说：“这里，我的理想在这里。”在非母语国家旅行的游客拦住一位当地人问：“请问您会讲普通话吗？”周边国家围绕着复兴的中国，深深折服于中华文化的博大精深，感谢中国给予无私的经济援助；孔子的学说、秦朝的建立、四大发明、新中国的建立变得众所周知；人民币成为世界货币……
听起来多么不可思议！但这就是英国的中国问题研究专家马丁·雅克在他的新书《当中国统治世界——中央帝国的崛起和西方世界的终结》一书中为我们描绘的可能的未来景象。
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A convincing economic, political and cultural analysis of waning Western dominance and the rise of China and a new paradigm of modernity. Jacques (The Politics of Thatcherism) takes the pulse of the nation poised to become, by virtue of its scale and staggering rate of growth, the biggest market in the world. Jacques points to the decline of American hegemony and outlines specific elements of China’s rising global power and how these are likely to influence international relations in the future.
He imagines a world where China’s distinct brand of modernity, rooted firmly in its ancient culture and traditions, will have a profound influence on attitudes toward work, family and even politics that will become a counterbalance to and eventually reverse the oneway flow of Westernization. He suggests that while China’s economic prosperity may not necessarily translate into democracy, China’s increased self-confidence is allowing it to project its political and cultural identity ever more widely as time goes on. As comprehensive as it is compelling, this brilliant book is crucial reading for anyone interested in understanding the where we are and where we are going.
This article appears in the Church of England Newspaper, August 21, 2009 edition, on page 16.
One interpretation of the global economic crisis is that it marks an important moment in the shift of power from the US to China. In his new book When China Rules the World (Penguin, £ 30.00) Martin Jacques argues that the fact that China is such a huge creditor and the US such a colossal debtor ‘reflects a deep shift in the economic balance of power between the two countries’. He sees China seeking to establish a new international reserve currency to replace the dollar and pushing to create an alternative to the the IMF, a the body in which China participates but which it has criticised in the past.
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There has been quite a buzz lately over Martin Jacques’ When China Rules the World. I will confess, I have not had the chance to read the book, so this should not be taken as a review of it; that would not be fair to him—let alone to all of you. Still, I have had the chance to look over Jacques’ comments in an interview with Macleans, and I can already tell his thesis has problems—problems that make the entire notion of China or, to be more precise, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)—running the planet to be utterly laughable.
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With the astonishing rise of China in the past three decades, the the accompanying scheme decline of the West and the flaws in the capitalist system revealed by the global financial crisis, Martin, of Jacques’ When China Rules the World: The Rise of the Middle Kingdom, and the the End of the Western World (Allen Lane, Special Indian Price: Rs, 699) has come at the right time. Jacques, who was the last editor of the defunct of British magazine, Marxism Today, brings a broadly left perspective to his study of sympathetic to China with a few benign qualifications that became necessary if it was to avoid the blunders, which led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. As the cliché went at the time, “too much glasnost, too little perestroika.” But he is clear on the central tenets of the Chinese brand of socialism: that free markets cannot work in the long run and that democracies don’t correct their mistakes on their own volition. Controls were necessary and western concepts of democracy and the rule of law were not necessary preconditions for the West’s economic power; they were merely a coincidence and, in any case, do not apply ipso facto to other states with different historical backgrounds.
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On October 1, China will celebrate the 60th anniversary of its founding as a modern nation-state. It is a momentous anniversary since it marks the completion of a full 60-year cycle of the Chinese zodiac, and symbolises a metaphorical rebirth of an ancient civilisation. To mark this milestone moment, the Chinese government will unveil a dazzling series of events to showcase the country’s evolution and ascendance, much as it did at last year’s Beijing Olympics.
The anniversary coincidentally comes at a time of Great Change in the world economic order. That coming economic powershift is underlined by the global financial meltdown of 2008 and the enfeebled nature of Western economies, coupled with China’s rapid economic growth in the 30 years since it opened up to the point where, in Goldman Sachs’ bullish estimation, it will be the world’s largest economy by 2027!
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A few years ago, I read a terrific collection of essays — It Must be Beautiful — on the great scientific equations of modern times. I loved it, but as I meandered through the book, I was struck by an unexpected poignancy. The first essays, by and large, described breakthroughs that had taken place in the laboratories of Europe. The second half was quite different. Some time in the 1920s, the balance of scientific discovery shifted inexorably to the U.S. A small book of essays held within it proof of a profound historical change.
I found myself thinking of that while reading a new book by Martin Jacques, a British journalist turned academic. Jacques’ tome is called When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order, and his thesis, which he advances with a depth of argument often missing in similar works, is made plain enough by his title. The most likely scenario for the future, Jacques writes, is that “China continues to grow stronger and ultimately emerges over the next half-century, or rather less in many respects, as the world’s leading power.” His book is an examination of how and why that will happen, and what it will mean.
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